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Gen Zers Are Overly Optimistic About Being Wealthy
Gen Zers, according to a recent Magnify Money survey, are overly optimistic about being wealthy. In fact, according to the survey, they are THE most financially optimistic generation. To wit: “Nearly...
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Bear Trap? Market Holds Critical
Is the recent correction a “bear trap?” Or is the bounce just a selling opportunity for a return of the bear market? “A bear trap occurs when there is a bearish correction or reversal amid an overall...
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Speak Loudly Because You Carry A Small Stick
The big question facing the Fed is whether they should increase the Fed Funds rate by 25bps or 50bps on March 22, 2023. If Jerome Powell cared for our advice, we would tell him to take the opposite...
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Buffett On Buybacks
Warren Buffett defended stock buybacks in Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter, pushing back on those railing against the practice he believes benefits all shareholders. “When you are told that all...
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Aftershock Life After Silicon Valley Bank
While headlines of bank failures and bailouts consume the media, few are contemplating the economic and financial aftershocks that will follow. Hockey great Wayne Gretzky famously commented, “I skate...
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Consensus View Of “No Recession.” Could It Be Wrong?
Could the consensus view of a “no recession” scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily. Since the lows of last October, the technical backdrop has improved...
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Bear Stearns’s Failure Was 15-Years Ago This Month
Bear Stearns’s failure occurred 15 years ago last week. Six months later, Lehman Brothers would fail on September 15, 2008. Fast forward to the present day, and we recently had the largest bank...
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Phase Two of the Fed Follies
With Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse defunct, the Fed must restore confidence in the financial sector. The historical treatment for financial instability has been lower interest rates and more...
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Recession Indicators Says The Fed Broke Something
Recession indicators a ringing loudly. Yet, the Fed remains focused on its inflation fight, as repeatedly noted by Jerome Powell following this week’s FOMC meeting. During his press conference, he...
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Bullish Buy Signals Mark 4200 For Relief Rally
Despite an ongoing “banking crisis,” investors continue to chase stocks triggering several bullish buy signals. As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, two primary reasons exist for this current...
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A Federal Reserve Pivot is not Bullish
An old saying cautions one to be careful of what one wishes for. Stock investors wishing for the Federal Reserve to pivot may want to rethink their logic and review the charts. The second largest U.S....
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The Market Bottomed In October. Now What?
The market bottomed last October despite ongoing concerns about inflation, higher rates, recessionary risks, and a banking crisis. While the media headlines and youtube podcasts are filled with...
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Bills Notes or Bonds?
260 Fed meetings will occur between the issuance and maturity of a 30-year Treasury bond. There will be 260 times when the Fed raises, lowers, or does nothing with Fed Funds. In that perspective, why...
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Bullishness Remains Missing, Which Is A Good Thing
Despite media headlines, podcasts, and broadcasts suggesting “doom and gloom” lurks around the corner, investor bullishness has increased markedly since the October lows. This isn’t the first time we...
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The Dollars Death, Not So Fast
Headlines like the ones below lead some to believe that the U.S. dollar’s death may be coming soon. China, Brazil Strike Deal to Ditch Dollar for Trade- Barron’s 3/2023 China Completes First...
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Recession Odds Jump As The Fed Crushes Consumers
Recession odds have climbed considerably since Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress and the latest FOMC meeting. However, the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Credit Suisse (CS),...
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The Cash Hoard Of 2023 (And The Sideline Money Myth)
The vast “cash hoard of 2023” has the bullish media salivating about what it means for the future of equities. That cash hoard in money market funds now exceeds $5.2 trillion. Such has brought forth...
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Four Reasons The Dollar Is Here to Stay- Part 2
The media once again presumes that America’s financial negligence will result in a new global reserve currency. As we wrote in The Dollars Death, Not So Fast Part I, “Don’t hold your breath. Headlines...
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Breakeven Inflation Rates Falling Isn’t Bullish
What can breakeven inflation rates tell us about oil prices, energy stocks, and market direction? It turns out it’s a lot more than you think. Since 2021, as the impact of an economic shutdown...
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Sell May In April And Go Away?
An old adage says investors should “Sell May And Go Away.” The historical analysis suggests summer months of the market tend to be the weakest of the year. The mathematical statistics prove this as...
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