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The “Pain Trade” Is Higher For Now
The “pain trade” is likely higher over the next few weeks. I touched on this topic in this past weekend’s “Bull Bear Report:” Not surprisingly, the “bullish” short-term outlook garnered a substantial...
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Treasury Bonds FAQ
“When the supply and demand for bonds normalize, Treasury bond investors will likely realize that economics, inflation, and other factors warrant much lower yields.” The quote from Yields are Defying...
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Monetary Policy. Is The Fed Trying To Wean Markets Off Of It?
Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy? Such was an interesting premise from Alastair Crooke via the Strategic Culture Foundation. To wit: “The Fed however, may be attempting to...
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Contrarian Trade. Everyone Remains Bearish
From a contrarian investing view, everyone remains bearish despite a market that corrected all of last year. I polled my Twitter followers recently to take their pulse on the market. Of the 1280 votes...
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Passive Value Investors Are Not Value Investors
Investment management can be silly, just like the title of this article. When researching potential investments, we often must choose between math and facts versus irrational human behavior. For...
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A “Soft Landing” Scenario – Possibility Or Fed Myth?
Optimism is increasing on Wall Street, with investors hoping for a “soft landing” in the economy. “David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, is betting that inflation will...
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Recession Forecasts At Odds With Bullish Formations
Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity...
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Turmoil Lurks Around The Corner
On October 12, 1987, a week before Black Monday, the Wall Street Journal warned of the potential for significant market turmoil. Per the article: The use of portfolio insurance “could snowball into a...
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 01-31-23
S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review: 01-31-23 Also, read our commentary on why low rates don’t justify high valuations. J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each...
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The Technicals Vs The Fundamentals. Which Is Right?
Last week, we discussed why the more bullish technical formations were at odds with the many recession forecasts. Not surprisingly, that article generated substantial pushback from readers, pointing...
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Soft Landing Or Recession?
The stock market is betting on a Goldilocks scenario. Jerome Powell doesn’t foresee a recession, instead he forecasts a soft landing. Apollo is bettering the soft landing scenario with an optimistic...
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Bullish Investors Continue To Fight The Fed
Bullish investors continue to “Fight the Fed,” hoping that a change to monetary policy will reignite the 12-year-long bull market. But, for over a decade, the “Don’t Fight The Fed” mantra was the...
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The Correction May Have Started, Will Bulls Remain In Control?
The market correction has started. The question we have repeatedly discussed over the last several weeks is the ongoing battle between bullish technical improvements and bearish fundamentals. On...
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Janet Yellen Should Focus On HOPE
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently stated: “You don’t have a recession when you have the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years.” Let’s HOPE she is correct. As logical as her statement seems...
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“No Landing” Scenario At Odds With Fed’s Goals
Economically speaking, bullish bets are mounting on a “no landing” scenario, which suggests the economy will avoid a recession entirely. As noted by Yahoo Finance last Friday: “The newly-coined ‘no...
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Gold Investors Are Betting on the Fed
By owning gold, investors are not necessarily hedging against a government default but ironically betting the Fed will increasingly misuse monetary policy to help the government avoid defaulting. That...
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Do Not Be Fooled. It Is The “Return To Normal”
Don’t be fooled. Two important pieces of data came out this week that should be paid close attention to. On February 16th, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February was released....
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Retail Traders Go Bust As Speculation Inevitably Goes Wrong
A recent Wall Street Journal article discussed how retail traders that made millions during the pandemic trading the market are now mostly wiped out. “Amateur trader Omar Ghias says he amassed roughly...
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Capitalism Is Broken If Record Profit Margins Don’t Revert
“Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance. And if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism.” – Jeremy Grantham While there...
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The No Landing Scenario and UFOs
As if the 2020s haven’t been strange enough, the United States military recently shot down several UFOs. Equally bizarre as the possibility of aliens, some investment analysts are projecting an...
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