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Analyst’s Estimates Go Parabolic – Is The Market Next?
At the end of February, I discussed the impact of the tax cut and reform legislation as it related to corporate profits. “In October of 2017, the estimates for REPORTED earnings for Q4, 2017 and Q1,...
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Quick Take: Is Hypervolatility Signaling a Bottom?
The steady gains accompanied by the historically low volatility of 2017 have vanished. Given this new trading atmosphere, we must contemplate whether the recent spate of volatility and lower prices is...
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Kass: The Return Of The Bond Vigilantes
With mounting private and public debt, the U.S. economy is poorly positioned to reach consensus economic growth expectations The Bond Vigilantes are saddled up and ready to make a comeback – and it’s...
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Technically Speaking: 5-Indicators To Watch
In this past weekend’s newsletter I discussed the market hitting “the wall” last week. This failure at the downtrend resistance keeps us on a defensive posture for now, but still allocated to the...
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Nowhere to Hide
The following article was originally a PowerPoint presentation that highlights several aspects of recent price movements across assets classes and within equity industry sectors. Many investors are...
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See A Bubble? Get Out Of The Way.
In early March, we reprinted an article I wrote for Citywire on bubbles. That article focused on an academic paper called “Bubbles for Fama” by Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You on...
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The Pension Crisis Is Worse Than You Think
Last year I penned an article discussing the “Unavoidable Pension Crisis.” “Currently, many pension funds, like the one in Houston, are scrambling to slightly lower return rates, issue debt, raise...
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Does Surging Oil Prices Cause Recession? Depends On The Fed
“Peter Cook is the author of the ‘Is That True?’ series of articles, which help explain the many statements and theories circulating in the mainstream financial media often presented as “truths.” The...
View ArticleVideo: Where’s The Value
“When you see a bubble, get out of the way.” John Coumarianos recently penned a discussion of a Research Affiliates notes on the over-valuation of U.S. stocks versus international. Read the full blog...
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Weekend Reading: Rates Still Headed To Zero
Just recently, I was accused of “quietly abandoning” my belief that rates are ultimately headed toward zero. Nothing could be further from the case particularly as the recent rise in rates is...
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Mapping Out The Market’s Next Moves – 04-27-18
Review, Update & Looking Forward Intermediate-Term Picture Remains Bearish Worst Six Months Begins Fed Is Behind, But Still Screwing Up Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On:...
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Bull Markets Actually Do Die Of “Old Age”
David Ranson recently endeavored in a long research report to simply declare that “bull markets do not die of old age.” “The life expectancy of bull markets can be inferred from history. Fourteen bull...
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Kass: A Market Without Leadership
* More volatility lies ahead “Our experience tells us that these leaderless periods typically occur during important transitions in the market. So what is that transition today and how can we harness...
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Building A US Stock Portfolio With Smart Beta Funds
Two articles in the finance press this weekend wondered if value stocks were poised to outperform. In Barron’s, Reshma Kapadia interviewed value managers and recounted how poorly value stocks have...
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Technically Speaking: Bullish Hopes Clash With Bearish Signals
In this past weekend’s missive, I quoted Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the “StockTrader’s Almanac,” on the entrance of the market into the “seasonally weak” 6-month period for stocks. “May officially...
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 04-30-18
J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each month Brett will provide you their valuable S&P 500 Valuation Chart Book. This unique analysis provides an invaluable long term...
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Viewing Employment Without Rose-Colored Glasses
“Fed Officials Worry Economy Is Too Good. Workers Still Feel Left Behind” – New York Times 4/27/2018 This coming Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the monthly employment report....
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How’s Your Bond Fund Doing?
It’s been a tough year for bonds so far. Of course, a tough year for bonds can be a tough day for stocks. But investors seem equally disturbed by a 2% loss in bonds as by a 10% or more loss in stocks,...
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Everyone Is On The Same Side Of The Boat
In early 2018, I penned a post which illustrated the legendary Bob Farrell’s 10-investment rules. Bob, one of the great investors of our time, had a very pragmatic approach to managing money....
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Quick Take: Market Breaks Important Support
I have often discussed that as a portfolio manager I am not too concerned with what happens during the middle of the trading week. The reason is daily price volatility can lead to many false...
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