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Housing Is Unaffordable. Dems Want To Make It Worse.
The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Plenty of articles and commentaries address the concern of supply and affordability, with the younger generations...
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Divergences And Other Technical Warnings
While the bulls remain entirely in control of the market narrative, divergences and other technical warnings suggest becoming more cautious may be prudent. In January 2020, we discussed why we were...
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Is Toyota The Next Tesla?
Over the last four quarters, Tesla generated total revenue and earnings of $96 billion and $15 billion, respectively. Toyota's revenue and earnings are roughly three times larger at $299 billion and...
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Don’t Fear All-Time Highs, Understand Them
Don’t fear all-time highs in the market. Such is a natural response for investors who are concerned about market risk. However, rather than fearing market exuberance, we must understand what drives...
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Are The Magnificent Seven In A Bubble? Ask The Nifty Fifty
Sometimes, a narrative dominates the financial/social media and promotes a mania among investors. Today, the Magnificent Seven is a great example. Seven stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Google,...
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Small Cap Stocks May Be At Risk According To NFIB Data
Recently, retail investors have started chasing small-cap stocks in hopes of both a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and avoiding a recession. Such would seem logical given that,...
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This Is Nuts – An Entire Market Chasing One Stock
“When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is ‘this is nuts,’ it’s probably time to think about your overall portfolio risk. On Friday, that was how the...
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Apples Magic- Are Buybacks Worth Paying Up For?
Apple’s valuations are near their most expensive levels of the last ten years. Now consider that today’s valuation premiums are amidst a much higher risk-free bond yield than during most of the...
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Dumb Money Almost Back To Even, Making The Same Mistakes
After over two years, retail investors, also known as the “dumb money,” are almost back to breakeven. A recent chart by Vanda Research shows that the average retail “dumb money” investor portfolio...
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Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution
Valuation metrics have little to do with what the market will do over the next few days or months. However, they are essential to future outcomes and shouldn't be dismissed during the surge in bullish...
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Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think
In 2019, the Fed cut interest rates and restarted QE despite a healthy economy. Today, inflation is higher than the Fed's target, economic growth is above historical trends, and financial markets...
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Presidential Elections And Market Corrections
Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over...
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Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following...
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Bougie Broke The Financial Reality Behind The Facade
Social media users claiming to be Bougie Broke share pictures of their fancy cars, high-fashion clothing, and selfies in exotic locations and expensive restaurants. Yet they complain about living...
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Household Equity Allocations Suggests Caution
Household equity allocations are again sharply rising, as the “Fear Of Missing Out” or “F.O.M.O.” fuels a near panic mentality to chase markets higher. As Michael Hartnett from Bank of America...
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Blackout Of Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run
With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of...
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QE By A Different Name Is Still QE
The Fed added Quantitative Easing (QE) to its monetary policy toolbox in 2008. At the time, the financial system was imploding. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke bought $1.5 trillion U.S. Treasury and...
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Technical Measures And Valuations. Does Any Of It Matter?
Technical measures and valuations all suggest the market is expensive, overbought, and exuberant. However, none of it seems to matter as investors pile into equities to chase risk assets higher. A...
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Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions
At last week's FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell said, "We think financial conditions are weighing on the economy." His comments seem sensible, given the following: The Fed is reducing its balance sheet...
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Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think
During running bull markets, much commentary is written on why this time is different and why investors should not worry about market corrections. One such piece was written recently by Fisher...
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