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“Market Instability” Causes BOE To Reverse QT. Is The Fed Next?
Market Instability Originally Appeared At MarketWatch “Market instability” remains the most significant risk to central banks globally. Despite their desire to combat surging inflation, market...
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Turn Off CNBC and Watch Real Yields
Investors watch CNBC and CNBC’s competitors for guidance on where the markets are going. CNBC may provide insightful commentary from very qualified investors. Still, if one is watching CNBC to figure...
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The Strong Dollar Is A Risk To Corporate Profits
The strong dollar remains a risk to corporate profits and asset prices as the impact on the global economies grows. While many commentators argued the dollar would go bust due to the excessive debt...
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Superbubble’s Final Act? Or Is This Time Different?
Is this the “Superbubble’s Final Act?” Such was a fascinating piece of commentary recently from Jeremy Grantham, famed investor and co-founder of GMO. As he states: “Only a few market events in an...
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Goodbye TINA – Hello BAAA
Sheep are timid, nervous, and easily frightened animals. For similar reasons, some fixed-income investors are often described as sheepish. Investing sheep get anxious about stock market volatility and...
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Deflation Will Become The Problem When “Something Breaks”
While the Fed continues to hike rates to combat high inflation levels aggressively, history shows that deflation will become a more significant threat when something “breaks” in the financial or...
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Fed Rate Hikes Approaching The “Breaking Point”
Last week, the FOMC published its minutes from the September meeting, confirming its recent stance that Fed rate hikes will continue until inflation is vanquished. To wit: “Many participants noted...
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Picking Stocks In A Bond-Friendly Environment
In Goodbye TINA, Hello BAAA, we make a case that investors should expect better total returns from bonds versus stocks over the next ten years. To be clear, we do not think investors should ditch...
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“Recession Fatigue” As Consumers Begin To Break
“Recession Fatigue” is setting in as consumers struggle under rising interest rates, high inflation, and a declining stock market. Such was a point made in a recent CNBC article: “As the Federal...
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Druckenmiller: A Decade Of No Returns
Is a “lost decade” ahead for markets? Stanly Druckenmiller believes that could be the case. “There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years,...
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MBS, Convexity Vortex, and a Silver Lining for Bonds
Many investors fail to understand the nuances and complexities of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). As a result, few can appreciate institutional MBS investors’ role in the recent bond market rout....
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The Treasury Market Is The Fed’s Next Crisis
The Fed’s next crisis is already brewing. Unlike 2008, where “subprime mortgages” froze counter-party trading in the credit markets as Lehman Brothers failed, in 2022, it might just be the $27...
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October Market Lows And The End Of Bear Markets
October started strong and then slid to new lows but managed to rally back toward the month’s end. As noted in “As Buybacks Return:” “The Dow is on pace for its best month since 1976. It is also close...
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Finance is at Fault, Not Russia, Powell, or Biden
It’s Russia’s fault, cries the media. Others put the blame for recent stock declines at the feet of the Federal Reserve. Some fault Biden, the dollar, and OPEC. The financial media likes to have...
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Are The FANG Stocks Dead?
Are the FANG stocks dead? Or, to be clear, are the MANNGMAT stocks dead? Of course, we are talking about the big technology heavyweights of Meta (FB), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Nvidia (NVDA),...
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There Really Is No Middle Class Any Longer
There was a time when a large portion of Americans belonged to the “middle class.” It meant you could afford a decent living standard, such as owning a house and a car and had savings in the bank....
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The “Policy Pivot” May Not Be Bullish
Since June, the market rallied on hopes of a “policy pivot” by the Federal Reserve. However, those hopes got dashed each time as Jerome Powell clarified that the “inflation fight” remained the primary...
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Midterm Elections Are Bullish Even In A Bear Market
With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improves given a now gridlocked Congress? Historically speaking, such is the case. As noted by Michael Cannivet via Forbes: “Before you...
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Our Currency, The World’s Problem Part 1
The Bank of England is bailing out U.K. pension funds. The Bank of Japan uses excessive monetary policy to protect its currency and cap interest rates. China encourages its banks to buy stocks. The...
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Hard Landing Coming? Investors Don’t Think So.
Is a “hard landing” coming, economically speaking, as the Fed continues its most aggressive rate hike campaign in 40 years? Investors don’t seem to think so as investors continue to chase economically...
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