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Oil Price Reversions – The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions
An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting. The reason is that oil price reversions are the inevitable outcome of economic recessions. Of course, such is due to the previous price...
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“HODL” Finds Its Inevitable Flaw
“HODL,” an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to “Meme stocks” during the runup in 2020 and 2021. The term “HODL” originated from user GameKyubbi,...
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Earnings Recession Coming As Fed Hikes Rates
Earnings Recession Coming Was Originally Published At MarketWatch An earnings recession is coming as the Fed hikes rates which accelerates an economic recession. Such should be no surprise given...
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Don’t Fight The Fed
If we could only impart one bit of wisdom to our readers about today’s market it is “don’t fight the Fed.“ Unbeknownst to many investors, the saying, don’t fight the Fed, is a two-way street. It is...
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Recession Risks. Are They Already Priced In?
Are recession risks fully “priced in” by the markets? Such was an interesting question asked recently by my colleague Albert Edwards at Societe Generale. To wit: “A US recession looks imminent and the...
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 06-30-22
S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review: 05-31-22 Also, read our commentary on why low rates don’t justify high valuations. J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis. Each...
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Payment For Order Flow & The SEC’s Plan To End It
“Payment For Order Flow” remains a contention between retail investors and Wall Street. On the one hand, it creates the ability to have “free trading” for retail investors. However, it also creates an...
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The Trolley Car Problem- Part 1 The Fed’s Predicament
An unstoppable trolley car is barreling down the track. As the switchman, you stand at the junction where the track branches into two and you must choose which path the trolley will follow....
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Fear Of Missing Out? Wall Street & Retail Hang On.
The “Fear Of Missing Out,” or “F.O.M.O.” is a centuries-old behavioral trait that began to get studied in 1996 by marketing strategist Dr. Dan Herman. “Fear of missing out (FOMO) is the feeling of...
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The “Bullwhip Effect” Will Frustrate The Fed
The “Bullwhip Effect Originally Published At The Epoch Times The “Bullwhip Effect” has gotten the media’s attention as of late. However, the causes, effects, and consequences to the market and...
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Japan and Europe – Part Two of The Trolley Car Problem
Having discussed the Federal Reserve’s trolley car problem in Part One, it’s time to cross the travel abroad to see how similar issues are playing out in Japan and Europe. Japan’s Trolley Car Problem...
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Giant Corporations Are Causing Inflation?
“Giant corporations are using inflation as cover to raise their prices & boost their profits. In industry after industry, we have too little competition & companies have too much power to...
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ESG Underperformance Will Be Its Undoing
ESG underperformance will be the strategy’s eventual undoing. We have discussed the many problems with ESG investing in previous posts. The Great Wall Street Money HeistWall Street Wins Again As ESG...
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Liquidity and Valuations – The Cornerstones of Investing
The bull market surge in 2020 and 2021, followed by the bear market swoon, are great reminders that liquidity and valuations are critical to managing wealth effectively. Unfortunately, most investors...
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No Recession? All Of A Sudden Yield Spreads Are Collapsing
No recession. That was the recent declaration from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, noting that consumer spending, industrial output, credit quality, and other indicators don’t suggest economic risk....
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Inflation or Recession, Which Concern Is Driving The Market?
In the Trolley Car Problem – The Fed’s Predicament, we laid out how the Fed may likely choose to fight inflation at the expense of triggering a recession. “Jerome Powell can tackle inflation but risk...
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Wall Street Wins Again – SPAC Edition
As expected, Wall Street wins again. In 2020 and 2021, retail investors were chasing financial markets recklessly. Armed with sites like Reddit WallStreetBets and a Robinhood trading app, not to...
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Investing Lesson Of Math Learned The Hard Way
Every investor must learn the one investing lesson in surviving the long game: how math works. I recently received an email from a reader suggesting that the 2022 decline in the market is “no big...
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Persistent Inflation Scares The Fed
The markets are now betting that inflation will soon subside, allowing the Fed to pivot. But, if inflation proves persistent and not transitory, the Fed may have much more work to do, to the detriment...
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Jim Cramer Says Fed Pivot Means Buy Stocks?
Jim Cramer recently stated it will be time to buy stocks when the Fed pivots. “When the Fed gets out of the way, you have a real window and you’ve got to jump through it. … When a recession comes, the...
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