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Market Pullback Or Bear Market?
Market pullback or bear market? Such seems to be the question on everyone’s mind as of late, given the rough start to 2022 so far. There are undoubtedly many issues confronting even the most...
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Microsoft’s Stock Valuation and Baseball
Over the last few years, investors have bid up prices of some stocks to historical valuations. Many of these investors are speculating on price and have little appreciation of underlying fundamentals....
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Earnings Estimates Will Disappoint As Fed Tightens Policy
Earnings estimates are more deviated from long-term growth trends than at any point in history. As a result, analysts and Wall Street are overly optimistic as the Fed tightens monetary policy against...
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The Fed Put? What And Where Is It?
The “Fed put?” Exactly, what is it, and where does this mythical support reside? It isn’t surprising with the rough start to 2022, investors are hoping the Fed will look to stabilize financial...
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Bond Bull Market Coming? Take The Road Less Traveled
Over the past decade, historically low bond yields have converted many bond investors into bond traders. Bond traders strategically buy and sell bonds to generate price gains. A bond coupon, a primary...
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Geopolitical Risk Could Sideline The Fed
“Geopolitical Risk” could well be a reason for the Fed to slow-roll tightening monetary policy in March. With Russia invading Ukraine, such would not be the first time that the Fed used “geopolitical...
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March Stock Rally Doesn’t Negate The Risk Of A Bear Market
A March stock market rally is likely, but does that mean the risk of a bear market is over? So far, 2022 has been challenging for investors who got lulled into complacency since the March 2020 lows....
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Sell Energy Stocks? The Time May Be Approaching
“Sell Energy Stocks” Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation....
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 02-28-22
S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review: 02-28-22 Also, read our commentary on why low rates don’t justify high valuations. J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis....
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Bear Market Strategies – Are You Ready?
The Federal Reserve and federal government have showered massive liquidity on the economy and markets to combat the pandemic. Their medicine worked. Economic activity rebounded quickly. Stocks and...
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Hiking Rates Into Peak Valuations Is A Mistake
Hiking rates into a wildly overvalued market is potentially a mistake. So says Bank of America in a recent article. Optimists expecting the stock market to weather the rate-hike cycle as they’ve done...
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An Earnings Reversion Is Coming
An earnings reversion is coming. In “earnings estimates will disappoint,” we showed the extreme bullishness of estimates entering 2022. “Despite economic growth weakening as inflation increases,...
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High Gas Prices and Recessions
While higher gas prices may be welcome news to the oil industry, the rest of us should be concerned as it is a glaring recession warning. Over the last 40 years, higher gas prices have been linked to...
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Fed’s QE Is Over (Until It Comes Back.)
The Fed’s QE is officially over. As we noted in our recent Daily Market Commentary (subscribe for a pre-market email): “The Fed will officially end the latest round of QE on Wednesday. The schedule...
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Market Perspective Is Important To Avoid Mistakes
Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing “Markets In Turmoil” every time the market dips, it’s no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen...
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Big Oil- The Fallacy Of A Windfall Profits Tax
Higher energy prices worrying you? Be afraid because Congress is coming to the rescue. Legislators are introducing a new bill called the “Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act.” The bill’s objective is to...
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Is Cash Trash As Inflation Rages?
“Cash Is Trash” is a common theme as of late as inflation rages from the massive monetary interventions of 2020 and 2021. However, is “cash really trash?” Or, does cash still provide a valuable...
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“BTFD” or “STFR”– Which Is It?
“BTFD” (Buy The F***ing Dip) or “STFR” (Sell The F***ing Rally) – which should investors do now? With the Fed now hiking rates, seemingly intent on doing so at every meeting in 2022, has the...
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March Madness Predictions and Investing: Process Matters
Investors are in the middle of a brief diversion from the Russian invasion and market volatility. Starting last Thursday, March 17th, investors’ debates turned from stocks, oil prices, bond yields,...
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Surge In Bond Yields Says It’s Time To Buy Bonds
The surge in bond yields suggests that we are nearing the ideal entry point to buy longer-duration bonds for capital appreciation and portfolio protection. Such isn’t the first time we have made this...
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