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Technically Speaking: Is The Market “Melting-Up?”
Is the “market melting-up?” Such was the question I received from my colleague at Cut The Crap Investing. It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a “no...
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China Plays The Long Game While The U.S. Blows Bubbles
China Plays The Long Game While The U.S. Blows Bubbles China is taking multiple actions to boost productivity and sustainably strengthen its economy. If successful, China's efforts come at the expense...
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History Warns The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates More, Not Less
History Warns The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates More, Not Less “Currently, the December 2019 Fed Funds futures contract implies that the Fed will reduce the Fed Funds rate by nearly 75 basis points...
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History Suggests That Stocks Won’t Like Inflation
Several articles published lately suggest that stocks perform well in higher inflation environments. That may be the case when inflation rises due to more robust rates of sustainable economic growth....
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Did The Fed Just Set The Stock Market Up For A Crash? 11-05-21
In this 11-05-21 issue of “Did The Fed Just Set The Stock Market Up For A Crash.” Market Pushes Higher As Speculation IncreasesThe Fed’s Third Mandate Takes PriorityWeaker Economic Growth...
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Charting The Stock Market “Melt Up,”& The Fed’s Naivety
Charting the stock market “melt-up” in prices, and the Fed’s naivety of the laws of physics may be of benefit to younger investors. After more than a decade of rising prices, accelerating markets seem...
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5-Signs Stock Market Investors Are Too Bullish
As investors rush to pile into the stock market, there are 5-signs they may be getting too bullish. Such was a point we touched on in this past weekend’s newsletter: “Every week it feels like we get a...
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What A Rate Hike In 2022 Might Mean For “Stonks”
On November 3, 2021, Jerome Powell made it clear the Fed only cares about “stonk” prices – and here’s how we see this as relevant to the possible rate hike in 2022. Employment is just an excuse to...
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David Robertson: Do You Feel Lucky?
Do you feel lucky? Crosscurrents and diverse opinions are the commodities of the day. At one extreme, earnings are great, and momentum is “momentum-ing.” The Fed has your back, so you should leverage...
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Is Cash A Good “Risk” Hedge?
“Is cash a good hedge?” It’s a focus of a recent article discussing “fast” versus “slow” risk which examined the financial impact on equities and cash over long-term periods. To wit: “The simplest...
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Inflation In Irrational Exuberance 11-12-21
In this 11-12-21 issue of “Inflation In Irrational Exuberance.” Market Stalls Ahead Of Options ExpirationSentiment Is Showing Irrational ExuberanceInflation Is SurgingPortfolio PositioningSector &...
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Fed Issues Stock Market Warning As Valuations Surge
In the semi-annual Financial Stability Report, the Fed issued a stock market warning as elevated valuations are causing markets to be “vulnerable to significant declines”. To wit: Prices of risky...
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Trade “The Off-The-Charts Bull Market”
“How do you trade this off-the-charts bull market?” That was an email question I got last week that deserves a deeper explanation. However, let me start with an excellent note from Global Macro...
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How Durable Is The Potemkin Economy?
“Increased borrowing must be matched by increased ability to repay. Otherwise, we aren’t expanding the economy – we’re merely puffing it up.” – Henry Alexander of Morgan Guaranty Trust The original...
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Rising Interest Rates Matter To The Stock Market
Do rising interest rates matter to the stock market? Many in the financial media and advisory community are scrambling to locate periods where rates rose along with stocks. Has it happened?...
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The “FOMO” Rises As Investors Push Risk Bets 11-19-21
In this 11-19-21 issue of “The FOMO Rises As Investors Push Risk Bets” Market Consolidates Gains Near HighsFOMO Is Evident As Investors Chase ReturnsThe Next Financial CrisisPortfolio...
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Fed “Taper” Is Good News For The Bond Market
Investors are fretting over the prospect of a “Fed Taper,” but history shows such will likely be good news for the bond market. Currently, it doesn’t seem that way, with rates rising...
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Santa Claus Rally Is Coming, But Will Markets Correct First?
Investors have high hopes for the annual “Santa Claus” rally. But, could there be a correction before “Santa visits Broad and Wall?” At the moment, investors are “making their list, and checking it...
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“Black Friday” Plunges As Covid Variant Rattles Markets
In this 11-26-21 issue of “Black Friday” Plunges As Market Rattled By Covid Variant “Black Friday” As Market PlungesTime To Buy OilYes, Interest Rates Will MatterPortfolio PositioningSector &...
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Could The Fed Trigger The Next “Financial Crisis”
Could the Fed trigger the next “financial crisis” as they begin to hike interest rates? Such is certainly a question worth asking as we look back at the Fed’s history of previous monetary actions....
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