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Markowski: Sentiment Anomalies & Market Downturns
Market Sentiment Anomalies And Historical Market Downturns. The two stock market sentiment anomalies have increased the probability of a correction near term. The two anomalies are: Thanksgiving Melt...
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David Robertson: Growth & Inflation Remain Quiescent
Since the financial crisis in 2008, extraordinary monetary policies have been in place to prevent an ugly and debilitating decline in economic growth. Despite such policies, and because of them, growth...
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 11-27-20
What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 11-27-20 It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If...
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Market Risk Elevated Heading Into Distribution Season 11-27-20
In this issue of “Market Risk Elevated Heading Into Distribution Season.” Stuck Near All-Time Highs More Signs Of Market Risk Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: A Vaccine & The New “New...
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A Vaccine Won’t Cure The 20-Year “Widow-Maker” Trade
Will a vaccine cure the 20-year “Widow-Maker” trade? In 1999, a media personality stated that “investing like Warren Buffett was like driving dad’s old Pontiac.” Of course, that was at the height of...
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Technically Speaking: Is The Narrative All “Priced In?”
Is the narrative all “priced in?” As discussed over the past couple of weeks, investors have gone “all in.” With the markets now extremely extended, what should investors do now? On Saturday, I...
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S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 12-01-2020
S&P 500 Monthly Valuation & Analysis Review – 12-01-2020 Also, read our commentary on why low rates don’t justify high valuations. J. Brett Freeze, CFA, founder of Global Technical Analysis....
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The Profits Driving Market Narratives and Hyperbole
The Profits Driving Market Narratives and Hyperbole “Spencer bought NIO a few days ago, and he is already up 35%” The quote above is a friend’s text describing his 15-year-old’s investing prowess....
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 12-04-20
What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 12-04-20 It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If...
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#MacroView – The Energy Rally Is Likely Premature
The rally in energy companies is likely premature. To understand why such may be the case, we have to review a bit of history. In 2013, I began warning about the risk to oil prices due to the ongoing...
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Sign, Sign, Everywhere A Sign. But Investors Disregard. 12-04-20
In this issue of “Sign, Sign, Everywhere A Sign. But Investors Disregard.” Bullish Bias Continues Into December Sign, Sign, Everywhere A Sign Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Energy Rally...
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The “Roaring 20’s”– The Fundamental Problem Of The Bullish View
Recently, Ed Yardeni discussed his view of why another “Roaring 20’s” may lie ahead. However, while I certainly can appreciate his always “bullish optimism,” there is a significant fundamental problem...
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Technically Speaking: Margin Debt Confirms Market Exuberance
During the past couple of weeks, I have discussed the rising levels of bullishness in the markets. We have pointed to indicators like extreme investor positioning, put/call ratios, etc. However, the...
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Half-Truths Are Half Lies By Definition
Half-Truths Are Half Lies By Definition “When one side of a story is heard and often repeated, the human mind becomes impressed with it insensibly” – George Washington Daughter- Can I go out with...
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Markowski: S&P Down & VIX Up By Year End.
Most recent findings from researching the three prior Bullish Sentiment Anomaly (BSA) occurrences since 2017 indicate a 100% probability the S&P will be down, and the VIX up, by year-end. S&P...
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#WhatYouMissed On RIA This Week: 12-11-20
What You Missed On RIA This Week Ending 12-11-20 It’s been a long week. You probably didn’t have time to read all the headlines that scrolled past you on RIA. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. If...
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#MacroView: Earnings Growth Will Disappoint In 2021
It’s that time of year when Wall Street analysts started trotting out the predictions for earnings growth and stock market targets for the coming year. Unfortunately, each year these overly optimistic...
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Irrational Exuberance – The Bulls Remain In Control 12-11-20
In this issue of “Irrational Exuberance – The Bulls Remain In Control.” Bullish Bias Continues The Disposition Of Risk And Control Portfolio Positioning Update MacroView: The Energy Rally Is Likely...
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Shiller: ECY & Justification For Sky-High Stock Prices
In a recent interview, Dr. Robert Shiller justified “sky-high” stock prices by using a measure called the “Earnings CAPE yield” or ECY. To wit: “There has been much puzzlement that the world’s stock...
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Can We Trust Mr. Market’s Booming Economic Outlook?
Can We Trust Mr. Market’s Booming Economic Outlook? The Sopranos- Season 1 Episode 5 “College” Meadow Soprano speaking to her father Tony: “Are you in the mafia?” Tony: “That’s total crap. Who told...
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